Mike Peacock, Reuters European Politics & Economics Editor, gives us his latest take on the situation in Ukraine (views expressed are his own):


"A reported 0300 GMT deadline, which Russian forces denied had been issued, for Ukraine’s forces to disarm in Crimea or face the consequences has passed without incident and in the last hour President Vladimir Putin has ordered troops that took part in military exercises in western Russia this week to return to base.

The West may have no military card to play – and its ability to impose meaningful sanctions is untested as yet – but the markets reminded Putin in no uncertain terms yesterday that there is a price to pay for war mongering. The rouble plunged, Russian stocks dropped 11 percent and the central bank raised interest rates by a full point and a half and then blew $12 billion of its reserves trying to prop up the currency, hardly an ideal policy response for an economy that is already struggling. If in the longer term foreign investment dries up things could get quite nasty.

NATO allies will today hold emergency talks on the crisis, for the second time in three days, following a request from Poland which has taken a more robust stance against Russia than some of its European peers. Kiev's U.N. ambassador, Yuriy Sergeyev, said Russia had deployed roughly 16,000 troops to Crimea since last week.

Washington is talking up sanctions from visa bans and asset freezes to trade isolation and has now suspended all military engagements with Russia. But the European Union, with its close energy and economic ties to Russia, is more reticent, none more so than Germany. EU foreign ministers held out the threat of sanctions on Monday but went no further than that. EU leaders will meet on Thursday to discuss next steps. The G7 members may boycott Russia’s G8 summit in Sochi in June.

Britain’s David Cameron and Barack Obama reiterated in a call that there would be “significant costs” for Moscow unless it changed course. But a UK official walking into Cameron’s office was snapped by photographers with a document. It showed the UK would not support trade sanctions for now, nor close London’s financial centre - the City - to rich Russians. Whether it was a discussion paper or a definitive outline of policy is not clear but either way it will hardly have Putin and his backers quaking in their boots. Cameron’s office was forced to deny it was putting the City’s interests before Ukraine’s plight.

The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, or OSCE, said it was trying to convene an international contact group to help defuse the crisis after Germany said Chancellor Angela Merkel had persuaded Putin to accept such an initiative.

The new Ukrainian government may be completely outgunned by its neighbour but it also has some cards to play. An IMF mission arrives in Kiev today – the first step towards working out an aid programme – and Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk has spelled out budget spending cuts and pledged to deliver whatever reforms the Fund wants. Previous governments in Kiev baulked at an increase in gas prices for domestic consumers and a flexible exchange rate for the hryvnia currency. So it is possible that serious funds could soon be flowing into Ukraine."