March Jobs Report
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to release U.S. joblessness data at 8:30 a.m. EDT, April 4. Watch here for live news, updates and analysis.
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Here's the March jobs report.The US economy added 192,000 jobs, unemployment was unchanged at 6.7%. The number of long-term unemployed Americans is basically constant at 3.7 million. February's number was revised up to 197,000 and average hourly earnings fell by a cent and are up just 2.1% since last March.The headline numbers of jobs added and the overall unemployment are, however, becoming less relevant indicators of how strong or weak the labor market actually is. The US has been adding jobs at a low but steady rate for years, and unemployment has been falling. But the debate about what economists call slack in the labor market focuses on other indicators: wage growth (which has not been strong for several years), long-term unemployment, and the percentage of Americans participating in the jobs market.Last week Janet Yellen said what many Americans have felt: the job market is far from its full potential, and in some respects, is still weak. As Evan Soltas put it, it seems like "the job market is working for some even as it fails others".
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Everyone loves a good guess! Especially twitter: #NFPguesses has you covered for wisdom/ignorance of the crowd.
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If you want a great overview of the job market and preview of today's data, click away from this liveblog and read Tim Duy:
Headline numbers won't tell the whole story. The Fed will be looking deeper into the numbers for evidence of greater slack than indicated by the unemployment rate. My opinion is that if the slack is diminishing faster than the Fed doves expect, it is most likely we will see wage growth accelerate. If wage growth remains low, then the Fed will be confident that there is little incipient inflation pressure to justify a more aggressive reduction of policy accommodation.
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Reminders of consensus:
Payrolls +195k
Private +205k
Unemployment 6.6%
Hourly earnings +0.2%
Workweek 34.4 hours
biz.yahoo.com/c/e.htmlby Justin Wolfers via twitter 4/4/2014 12:29:25 PM -
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Long-term unemployment basically unchanged: 3.7 million Americans out of work for 27 weeks or more 1.usa.gov/13pzDF3by Ben Walsh via twitter 4/4/2014 12:34:30 PM -
March Meh for the jobs reportby JimPethokoukis via twitter 4/4/2014 12:34:31 PM -
Average hourly earnings give back a penny, still up 2.1% over past year, faster than rate of inflation.by bencasselman via twitter 4/4/2014 12:34:40 PM -
Average hourly earnings a bit disappointing - flat.by James Saft via twitter 4/4/2014 12:35:45 PM -
I'd much rather see flat unemployment with people rejoining job market than falling unemployment + falling labor force.by Neil Irwin via twitter 4/4/2014 12:36:23 PM -
The broader U-6 rate actually ticked up to 12.7%, gone nowhere so far in 2014by JimPethokoukis via twitter 4/4/2014 12:37:11 PM
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Overall jobs report not world beating, but no disaster. Unlikely to change arc of Fed taper or eventual (long in future) rate rise.by James Saft via twitter 4/4/2014 12:37:43 PM
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Futures add to gains after jobs report
NEW YORK - U.S. stock index futures rose on Friday, adding to earlier gains despite the March payroll report coming in modestly below expectations.
S&P 500 futures rose 8.1 points and were above fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures added 67 points and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 20.75 points.
(Reporting by Ryan Vlastelica; Editing by Bernadette Baum) -
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March saw a continuation of the solid hiring pace we saw last month, with unemployment unchanged since February.
Reuters has some key data and analysis on what the jobs report's numbers mean. Click here to read. -
U.S. maintains solid job growth pace as winter fades
U.S. employers maintained a solid pace of hiring for a second straight month in March, further evidence the economy was shifting into higher gear after being held back by a brutally cold winter.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 192,000 new jobs last month after rising 197,000 in February, the Labor Department said on Friday. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7 percent, as Americans flooded the labor market.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected employment to increase 200,000 last month and the unemployment rate to fall one-tenth of a percentage point.
Click here to read more. -
Temp workers up, manufacturing jobs down (only by 1,000). Not the ideal mix for sustained rise in employment, wages.by James Saft via twitter 4/4/2014 12:43:55 PM
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Previous growth revised up by 37,000. January: 144,000 new jobs, not 129,000. February: 197,000 new jobs, not 175,000 thkpr.gs/1mPiAYAby TPEconomy via twitter 4/4/2014 12:46:33 PM -
The unemployment rate for those with a bachelor's degree is 3.4%. For those without a high school diploma: 9.6%. bls.gov/news.release/e…by keithboykin via twitter 4/4/2014 12:47:15 PM -
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We are back at peak payrolls (last Jan 2008) but would need another 600k or so to be at 1/08 employment to population.by James Saft via twitter 4/4/2014 12:48:39 PM
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15 percent of all jobs added in March were temp jobs (+29k in prof/biz services). bls.gov/news.release/e… #gigeconomyby SuzyKhimm via twitter 4/4/2014 12:52:28 PM -
@jamessaft Jan 08 was 138,365,000. We’re currently at 137,928,000, so still 437,000 shortby felix salmon via twitter 4/4/2014 12:53:59 PM -
Monetary implications of this report: ZERO
- No evidence of inflation or capacity constraints for the hawks
- Not enough slowing for dovesby Justin Wolfers via twitter 4/4/2014 12:56:01 PM -
Bureau of Labor Statistics: March 2014 jobs report [PDF]
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So the slow, steady, and not-very-robust recovery continues.How steady? The coverage from last month is remarkably similar to the coverage from last year.Neil Irwin, last month: "For pessimist or optimist, jobs report is more of the same"Yours truly, last month: ""America’s job market: still not good enough"Matthew O'Brien, from last year: "Why is the recovery the same as always?"Ryan Avent, from last year: "Steady as she goes... the overall habit of the labor market is strong mean reversion"
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A solid pace of U.S. jobs growth pushed up Wall Street stocks futures and the dollar on Friday, adding to pressure on the euro from signs that the European Central Bank (ECB) is warming to the once-taboo idea of aggressive asset buying. Click here to keep reading.
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Must be one of the best jobs reports ever - stocks, Treasuries, emerging market FX, gold, oil...all up!by Jamie McGeever via twitter 4/4/2014 1:10:08 PM -
And that's a wrap for us. Thanks for coming by! Today's job news wasn't that new or newsworthy -- it provided more confirmation for the already prevailing view that the recovery continues, but continues to be nowhere near as strong as it needs to be.Tune in next month to see if anything has changed.
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