September jobs report
The Commerce Department will release its monthly survey of America's job market on Tuesday at 8:30 AM EDT. Follow this space for live updates and reaction.
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What to expect in today's jobs report
Here's Reuters with a run-up to today's edition of the government's monthly jobs report:"Many in the markets think the Fed will delay trimming its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying programme, which has supported riskier assets like shares, until the economic impact of this month's partial U.S. government shutdown becomes clearer.
However, the prospect that the deluge of data due to emerge from reopened government agencies - including the jobs report and retail sales and factory output data for September - could influence that outlook has convinced many to hold their fire.
If the non-farm payrolls report beats forecasts, it could renew the debate over whether the Fed would still taper this year or not, injecting volatility into the markets.
"If the jobs number beats expectations and is backed up by good retail sales and durable goods data, we could see some speculation of Fed tapering return," said Ian Gunner, portfolio manager at Altana Hard Currency Fund.
Economists polled by Reuters expect jobs growth of around 180,000 and an unemployment rate of 7.3 percent."
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#BLS As @IanShepherdson and others noted, the delayed Sept. jobs report will be last one untarnished by shutdown or late polling til 1/3/14by DanielAlpert via twitter 10/22/2013 12:06:37 PM -
They had to start somewhere: First jobs of media stars reut.rs/177xdhV Happy #firstjob Tuesday!by lauren.young via twitter 10/22/2013 12:16:46 PM -
Happy jobs Tuesday. +180 new jobs expected in Sept. Jobless rate steady at 7.3%. Here's five years of data. http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BXLi_QLCMAAv_S-.png
by Matt Phillips via twitter 10/22/2013 12:19:36 PM -
What analysts are expecting
Via Business Insider here's UBS's Drew Matus: "Employment growth probably re-accelerated in September after the smaller than expected rise in August and downward revisions to the previous two months. Labor markets appear to be improving. The trend in jobless claims continued to drop in September; consumers’ assessments of the labor market continued to improve; and the September ISM surveys appeared roughly consistent with our forecast for a 195,000 rise in headline payrolls."
And here's Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics via Bloomberg: “Payrolls growth is not booming, but is enough to keep bringing the unemployment rate down. The message going into the government shutdown was that things are picking up. There’s so much uncertainty now.” -
September jobs report out in 5. Consensus forecast: +180k on nonfarm payrolls, up from 169k in Aug., unemployment unchanged at 7.3%.by Neil Irwin via twitter 10/22/2013 12:24:52 PM -
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September payroll employment increased (+148,000); unemployment rate little changed (7.2%) go.usa.gov/vrK #JobsReport #BLSdataby BLS-Labor Statistics via twitter 10/22/2013 12:30:25 PM -
148k is bad news for the last jobs report we can remotely trust this year.by felix salmon via twitter 10/22/2013 12:31:05 PM -
The August payroll print is one of the most heavily revised. Since 2005, Aug print has been revised up 7 out of 8 times. Avg +40kby BergenCapital via twitter 10/22/2013 12:31:21 PM -
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Internals of household survey are solid--more employed, fewer unemployed, employment to pop ratio/labor force participation unchanged.by Neil Irwin via twitter 10/22/2013 12:33:22 PM
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I see we're still in the bad-news-is-good-news zone. The debt ceiling stuff almost made me forget that the only thing that matters is TAPERby felix salmon via twitter 10/22/2013 12:34:16 PM
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BLS: Data collection for the estimates in this release
had been completed prior to the shutdownby David Wessel via twitter 10/22/2013 12:35:03 PM -
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Unemployment rate lowest since late '08. http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BXLncEHCYAE7JAp.png
by Matt Phillips via twitter 10/22/2013 12:37:34 PM -
Key excerpts from today's jobs report:
The basics:
Economists expected a gain of 180,000 in September. Unfortunately, the report fell short of those numbers:
"Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 148,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in construction, wholesale trade, and transportation and warehousing."
Unemployment rates for major worker groups:
Adult men (7.1 percent)
Adult women (6.2 percent),
Teenagers (21.4 percent),
Whites (6.3 percent)
Blacks (12.9 percent),
Hispanics (9.0 percent)
Asians (5.3 percent
Long-term joblessness unchanged:
"In September, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 4.1 million. These individuals accounted for 36.9 percent of the unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed has declined by 725,000 over the past year."
The fabor force stops shrinking:
"Both the civilian labor force participation rate, at 63.2 percent, and the employment-population ratio at 58.6 percent, were unchanged in September. Over the year, the labor force participation rate has declined by 0.4 percentage point, while the employment- population ratio has changed little."
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was unchanged at 7.9 million in September. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. " -
Why go to college? Unemployment rates for:
High school dropout = 10.3
HS grad = 7.6
Some college = 6.0
BA or higher = 3.7by Michael R. Strain via twitter 10/22/2013 12:41:09 PM -
According to this optimistic analysis from the Chicago Fed, we will return to full employment around 2018: chicagofed.org/digital_assets…by Matthew C. Klein via twitter 10/22/2013 12:43:28 PM -
Some details from the Reuters report on the jobs numbers:
The pattern of employment gains in September was mixed last month, with government payrolls increasing 22,000 jobs after rising 32,000 in August.
The leisure and hospitality industry shed the most jobs since December 2009. There was a small bounce in information sector payrolls, which dropped in August as the motion picture industry shed workers.
Construction payrolls increased 20,000, which could ease fears of a leveling off in home building.
Manufacturing sector added only 2,000 jobs, while retail employment increased 20,800.
Other details of the employment report were mildly encouraging, with average hourly earningsincreased three cents in September. The length of the average workweek held steady at 34.5 hours.
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Who are the workers missing from today's labor market? Most are prime working age. Chart updated with September's #s . http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BXLrSSJCMAA0EzV.png
by EconomicPolicy via twitter 10/22/2013 12:54:22 PM -
Slowing average jobs growth worries me:
2012 Q4: 209k
2013 Q1: 207k
2013 Q2: 182k
2013 Q3: 143k.by Justin Wolfers via twitter 10/22/2013 12:55:46 PM -
Job growth in metros hit hardest in housing bubble is sagging. Miami jobs flat y/y, and Detroit still losing jobs. (metro data from Aug)by JedKolko via twitter 10/22/2013 1:01:37 PM -
8k new jobs in credit intermediation services & related activities in Sept. great news if you love credit intermediation/related activities!by Ryan McCarthy via twitter 10/22/2013 1:07:28 PM -
The most interesting nugget to come out of this month's jobs report seems to be the addition of 691k full-time jobs compared to the loss of 594k part-time jobs, which is good news. On Twitter, Ben White notes it "suggests talk of Obamacare creating a 'part-time' work force was wrong."
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Bonnie Baha, who heads Global Developed Credit at DoubleLine, tells Reuters:
"Incredibly weak payroll number this morning. This data was compiled prior to the government shutdown so one can only speculate that the recent stalemate in Washington, which surely shaved a few tenths of a percentage point from fourth quarter GDP growth, has exacerbated the problem. The growing unease among the business community with respect to adding capital investment along with adding jobs to the workforce due to inability of Washington to do anything other than kick the can down the road yet again is another worrisome trend." -
The fears about Obamacare changing the workforce from full-time to part-time seem to be unfounded so far. Not only are full-time workers up over the last year, as mentioned before, but average weekly hours have also remained steady over the last year in most industries. Leisure and hospitality, for example, has remained flat at 26 hours per week, and education and health services hasn't changed from 32.9 hours a week.
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America's mediocre job market, in 6 charts reut.rs/1ib9oHnby Ryan McCarthy via twitter 10/22/2013 1:32:11 PM
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Here's a worrying stat: The rising number of discouraged workers over the last year are overwhelmingly women. The total number of discouraged workers -- those who have not looked for work in 4 weeks because they think they won't be able to find a job, even though they want one -- has risen by 50,000 since September of last year (802k to 852k).
But, the number of discouraged male workers is down to 462k from 489k, a drop of 27,000. The number of discouraged women, on the other hand, is up to 391k from 313k, a full 78,000. -
But seriously, if the Fed is serious about not tapering until there's "substantial improvement," QE3 could be here awhile.by ObsoleteDogma via twitter 10/22/2013 1:39:42 PM -
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