Myanmar elections
Myanmar holds its first election in 20 years on Sunday,a vote in which parties backed by the military are assured victory. Still, the election has stirred hopes of change in the isolated nation. Reuters journalists will be blogging live the vote.
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A Thai official stands guard as refugees from Myanmar sit at the Thai-Myanmar border town of Mae Sot November 9, 2010. Illustrating the strains multi-ethnic Myanmar has faced for decades, minority Karen rebels seized government buildings in clashes with troops in the border town of Myawaddy, causing about 12,000 people to flee into Thailand, Thai officials said. REUTERS/Chaiwat Subprasom
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A Thai policeman talks with a group of refugee Buddhist monks from Myanmar at the Thai border town of Mae Sot November 9, 2010. Illustrating the strains multi-ethnic Myanmar has faced for decades, minority Karen rebels seized government buildings in clashes with troops in the border town of Myawaddy, causing about 12,000 people to flee into Thailand, Thai officials said. REUTERS/Chaiwat Subprasom
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A group of refugee Buddhist novices, who fled Myanmar when a battle erupted between Myanmar's soldiers and rebels, rest at the Thai border town of Mae Sot November 9, 2010. Illustrating the strains multi-ethnic Myanmar has faced for decades, minority Karen rebels seized government buildings in clashes with troops in the border town of Myawaddy, causing about 12,000 people to flee into Thailand, Thai officials said. REUTERS/Chaiwat Subprasom
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11:22 AM: Here's the link to that latest Reuters story where a USDP official says they will sweep the polls: www.reuters.com
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Children, who fled Myanmar when a battle erupted between Myanmar's soldiers and rebels, play with smoke at the Thai border town of Mae Sot November 9, 2010. Illustrating the strains multi-ethnic Myanmar has faced for decades, minority Karen rebels seized government buildings in clashes with troops in the border town of Myawaddy, causing about 12,000 people to flee into Thailand, Thai officials said. REUTERS/Chaiwat Subprasom
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Refugees, who fled Myanmar when a battle erupted between Myanmar's soldiers and rebels, cook corn at the Thai border town of Mae Sot November 9, 2010. Illustrating the strains multi-ethnic Myanmar has faced for decades, minority Karen rebels seized government buildings in clashes with troops in the border town of Myawaddy, causing about 12,000 people to flee into Thailand, Thai officials said. REUTERS/Chaiwat Subprasom
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A refugee, who fled Myanmar when a battle erupted between Myanmar's soldiers and rebels, walks between tents provided for them by Thai officials at the Thai border town of Mae Sot November 9, 2010. Illustrating the strains multi-ethnic Myanmar has faced for decades, minority Karen rebels seized government buildings in clashes with troops in the border town of Myawaddy, causing about 12,000 people to flee into Thailand, Thai officials said. REUTERS/Chaiwat Subprasom
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1:19 PM: The latest from Reuters www.reuters.com -
1:50 PM: The latest Reuters story said the two largest pro-democracy parties accused the military junta of manipulating Sunday's election. ""We took the lead at the beginning but the USDP later came up with so-called advance votes and that changed the results completely, so we lost," Khin Maung Swe, leader of the National Democratic Force, the largest opposition party, told Reuters.
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A refugee, who fled Myanmar when a battle erupted between Myanmar's soldiers and rebels, covers his body with a cloth at the Thai border town of Mae Sot November 9, 2010. Illustrating the strains multi-ethnic Myanmar has faced for decades, minority Karen rebels seized government buildings in clashes with troops in the border town of Myawaddy, causing about 12,000 people to flee into Thailand, Thai officials said. REUTERS/Chaiwat Subprasom
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A refugee, who fled Myanmar when a battle erupted between Myanmar's soldiers and rebels, holds a child as she carries her belongings on her head at the Thai border town of Mae Sot November 9, 2010. Illustrating the strains multi-ethnic Myanmar has faced for decades, minority Karen rebels seized government buildings in clashes with troops in the border town of Myawaddy, causing about 12,000 people to flee into Thailand, Thai officials said. REUTERS/Chaiwat Subprasom
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2:46 PM: Myanmar's two largest pro-democracy parties conceded on Tuesday they had lost the country's first election in 20 years and accused the main military-backed party of manipulating the results. www.reuters.com
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2:47 PM: A photo slideshow from DVB with Reuters pictures of the exodus from Myawaddy www.dvb.no
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2:50 PM: An analysis from Reuters following USDP's declaration it won up to 80% of seats in parliament says "The overwhelming number of legislative seats won by the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) means the military and its proxies will have control of parliament, since generals appointed by the armed forces already have a quota of 25 percent of all house seats." www.reuters.com
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2:53 PM: "That means the current regime's policies are certain to sail through. Opposition lawmakers will have little say and no chance to secure the 75 percent of votes needed to amend a constitution that favors and reserves power for the military." www.reuters.com
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3:30 PM: What happens next in Myanmar's transfer of power? Reuters say "Sunday's poll does not guarantee the winning party any role in cabinet. The ballot was held to elect a bicameral parliament and state assemblies only." www.reuters.com
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3:31 PM: Reuters adds, "The cabinet will be appointed by a president, not elected by the people. And the armed forces supreme commander will choose three serving generals to head defense, interior and border affairs ministries. It is likely some incumbent ministers who contested the election under the USDP banner will retain their portfolios."
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4:40 PM. The army-backed USDP took 85 out of 91 seats in Irrawaddy Division, 103 out of 105 seats in Mandalay and 28 out of 30 in Shan State East, a senior USDP official told Reuters. In Shan State South, they took 30 out of 60 seats. "By rough estimate, based on the data we have received so far, we expect to win 75 percent to 80 percent in the whole country,” he said. -
4:45 PM: Chairman Aye Maung of the RNDP, the second-largest among 22 ethnic parties, said: “So far as we have confirmed we have won 33 out of 44 seats we contested. I think this number may go up when we get further information from the remaining places.”
“So far, we have won seven seats at the upper house (National Parliament) and eight seats at the lower house (People’s Parliament),” he added. -
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5 PM: Results from Yangon are in: In the lower house, or Pyithu Hluttaw, the USDP won 37 seats and the NDF took 8. In the upper house, or Amyotha Hluttaw, the USDP won 8 seats seats and the NDF 4. For the Yangon regional assembly, the USDP took 74, the NUP got 8, the NDF 4, Democratic Party (Myanmar) 2. An independent candidate, 88 Generation Student Youths party and the RNDP each won one seat.
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5:15 PM:
The USDP's only real rival, the National Unity Party (NUP), also backed by the army, fared extraordinarily poorly in its quest for 980 seats. That bodes ill for those expecting parliament to widen dormant splits in the military enough to spark genuine parliamentary debate.
While the NUP and USDP are both conservative and
authoritarian, there's plenty of speculation the two would have pursued opposing social and economic policies in parliament, ultimately fostering some democratic debate. At least that's the theory.
An unexpectedly large vote for the NUP might have also been seen as a subtle jab against Than Shwe since it is thought to be closer to a different faction in the army and was founded under the rule of late dictator Ne Win, who was placed under house arrest in 2002 by Than Shwe, who accused him of treason.
So how did they do?
Tin Aung, a senior NUP official, said they had so far won just 54 seats -- four in the upper house, 13 in the lower house and 37 in the regional assembly.
Asked about complaints made by the NUP, he said: "Yes. Some representatives of our party filed complaints about fraud and malpractice by the USDP."
With the NUP crushed, dormant fissures in the military are less likely to spill out into the open in parliament with factions choosing between the NUP and USDP.
Many analysts, however, reckon that's now a possibility in future elections and a reason why some analysts caution against writing these polls off. -
A group of Myanmar refugees are seen from across the border in Thailand getting off a boat after crossing the border from Mae Sot to a pier in Myanmar's Myawaddi town, November 9, 2010. Illustrating the strains multi-ethnic Myanmar has faced for decades, minority Karen rebels seized government buildings in clashes with troops in the border town of Myawaddy, causing about 12,000 people to flee into Thailand, Thai officials said. REUTERS/Chaiwat Subprasom
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A Myanmar refugee holds food and water walks along as she walks along the Moei river before crossing to Myawaddi town, at the Thai-Myanmar border town of Mae Sot November 9, 2010. Illustrating the strains multi-ethnic Myanmar has faced for decades, minority Karen rebels seized government buildings in clashes with troops in the border town of Myawaddy, causing about 12,000 people to flee into Thailand, Thai officials said. REUTERS/Chaiwat Subprasom
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5:31 PM: U.N. refugee agency UNHCR says it is helping about 15,000 refugees who fled to Thailand from fighting in Myawaddy. At the request of Thai authorities, it said it was coordinating efforts of non-governmental organisations including some that normally provide food and shelter to 152,000 refugees already in nine camps on the Thai side of the border. UNHCR staff and Thai
authorities were also assessing the needs of about 3,000 refugees who fled to Thailand after fighting at the Three Pagodas Pass. -
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