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Iowa Caucuses

With 57% of the votes in, Romney has overtaken Paul for the lead in Linn County, which includes Cedar Rapids, a county that Romney won in '08.

by james.ledbetter 1/4/2012 2:22:27 AM
Our live signal is up at the Romney event location. Standing by. @LindsayClaiborn

by don_reuters via twitter 1/4/2012 2:22:35 AM
Obama's video teleconference with Democrats attending Iowa caucuses consisted of two questions. 1) does he still believe in hope and change? (surprise - he's more optimistic than ever) and 2) How does he respond to people who say he hasn't done enough? (he's done a lot and has a lot more to do). No wonder he stopped - exhausting questions.... pool report from White House correspondent said the event was so short that some of the journalists accompanying Obama missed the return trip to the White House.

by patricia.zengerle 1/4/2012 2:22:46 AM
If Perry finishes fifth I think he has to throw in the towel. He's polling about even with Buddy Roemer in NH now and I don't think there is much future for your candidacy if you finish 5th in Iowa and are a margin of error candidate in NH.

Even if he has a bit of cash on hand, what's his rationale for continuing? "I'm the third-most popular conservative candidate?"

by jmclure 1/4/2012 2:23:12 AM
@ThinkFirst @James I agree with the analogy broadly, but even Iowa's meaning has to rank a few notches above that of the preseason football void. At least we're actually worried about the wins/stats tonight, rather than who might blow out a knee while playing for nothing.

by Colin.McDonald 1/4/2012 2:23:23 AM
While it's still early, and while of course the fields are different, right now it looks like Romney may not beat his '08 performance of approx 30,000 votes.

by james.ledbetter 1/4/2012 2:24:07 AM
It is interesting that despite being the last-in and below-the-fold or ridiculed in all of the major news reporting Rick Perry appears to be getting at least 1 of every 10 votes in Iowa so far.

by ThinkFirst 1/4/2012 2:24:21 AM
Right now we have a very close three-way race. Exactly what the polls predicted.

by Nick Rizzo 1/4/2012 2:24:53 AM
@Jason, Don't tell Perry's money guys that! Reports out already that the Perry campaign is investing in ads in South Carolina. Bet it's hard for a southern governor to convince himself to eject before anyone in the South votes.

by sam.jacobs 1/4/2012 2:25:30 AM
Bachmann, Gingrich, Huntsman, and Santorum could easily be gone by SC/FL (lack of money and/or organization) - without Perry the GOP would be left with Paul vs Romney. That would not be healthy as conservatives would be without a candidate in the race.

by ThinkFirst 1/4/2012 2:26:22 AM
@patricia. A politically awakened evening, dems are showing up for air time. Got a robo call from my rep Dennis in Cleveland tonight as well.

by Benjamin A. Finowski 1/4/2012 2:26:28 AM
Back in DC, Obama tells Iowa Democrats, via video conference, "2012 is about reminding the American people how far we’ve traveled." He was asked by a caucus-goer (voter, attendee?) in Coralville whether he still believes in the "hope and change" theme from 2008.

by joanne allen 1/4/2012 2:26:40 AM
Regarding Perry's money in SC, this report via BuzzFeed Politics has these numbers for SC ad buys: Perry $265K, Romney $250K, Paul $200K

by Colin.McDonald 1/4/2012 2:28:02 AM
I note that Dubuque County, medium-to-large sized by IA standards, has yet to report a single vote.

by james.ledbetter 1/4/2012 2:28:55 AM
And no sooner did I post that, and 23% of the Dubuque vote is in, with Romney in the lead.

by james.ledbetter 1/4/2012 2:29:32 AM
There are no ties in politics. Except when there are.

by samyoungman via twitter 1/4/2012 2:30:02 AM
Despite very tight 3-way data, Intrade puts Santorum's odds of winning IA at 16.6%.

by james.ledbetter 1/4/2012 2:31:10 AM
Propose an "Over the Top" style arm-wrestling competition to determine a winner. Top three finishers can compete.

by samyoungman via twitter 1/4/2012 2:31:22 AM
I would definitely take that bet, James.

by Nick Rizzo 1/4/2012 2:31:32 AM
Romney now has a narrow overall statewide lead for the first time, with 22% reporting.

by james.ledbetter 1/4/2012 2:31:41 AM
Am feeling a little bit of a mid-evening shift to Romney. Not definitive, but palpable.

by james.ledbetter 1/4/2012 2:32:35 AM
With 22% in, 57 votes separate the first three candidates.

by Nick Rizzo 1/4/2012 2:32:52 AM
Not sure I agree, James. Early results in '08 had Romney 10% ahead of where he ended up.

by Nick Rizzo 1/4/2012 2:33:41 AM
In real life, I call James Ledbetter "Jim." Really not sure why I'm not doing that tonight.

by Nick Rizzo 1/4/2012 2:34:21 AM
An official (L) counts a vote at the caucus at Hoover High School, part of the 2012 Iowa Caucus, in Des Moines, Iowa. REUTERS/Brian Frank

by jashong.king 1/4/2012 2:34:29 AM
Awesome sweater party.

by anthony.derosa 1/4/2012 2:35:02 AM
One of the biggest TV cliches: university towns report late, and the student vote will definitely go to X. It's always true, except when it isn't.

by james.ledbetter 1/4/2012 2:35:02 AM
Michele Bachmann could use a John Wayne kind of hero right about now.

by chadwick.matlin 1/4/2012 2:36:01 AM
Okay, Jim. Tonight the first is true (Johnson and Story). The second? Who knows.

by Nick Rizzo 1/4/2012 2:36:16 AM
Woodbury County in the west, which has Sioux City and which Romney won handily in '08, has yet to report.

by james.ledbetter 1/4/2012 2:36:34 AM
Isn't pundit-wisdom an oxymoron?

by ThinkFirst 1/4/2012 2:36:40 AM
There could be a runnoff in IA

by Volodymyr Danishevskiy 1/4/2012 2:36:50 AM
a pac-man compitition

by Benjamin A. Finowski 1/4/2012 2:36:53 AM
@Chadwick John Wayne Gacy, you mean.

by Colin.McDonald 1/4/2012 2:37:01 AM
@Chadwick @Colin WAS TYPING THE SAME JOKE

by Nick Rizzo 1/4/2012 2:37:28 AM
@Rizzo This live blog just ain't big enough for the both of us (in my best Duke voice).

by Colin.McDonald 1/4/2012 2:38:41 AM
@Sam if Perry sneaks by Gingrich tonight into fourth I think he can go on as he gets a rebound storyline and becomes the conservative alternative to Gingrich.

That said, I wouldn't be buying non-refundable plane tickets to accompany either Perry or Bachmann to South Carolina, no matter how many press releases they send about their schedules for next week
.

by jmclure 1/4/2012 2:38:49 AM
Santorum is already performing better than I thought he would.

by samyoungman via twitter 1/4/2012 2:38:57 AM
@Nick @Colin. That's some type of liveblog alley-oop first
.

by chadwick.matlin 1/4/2012 2:39:03 AM
How many states would repudiate a putative favorite son/daughter as thoroughly as Iowa is right now with Bachmann? Am stumped for a defeat so humiliating, especially after her performance in the obviously meaningless summer straw poll.

by james.ledbetter 1/4/2012 2:39:23 AM
@James: Even Mondale won Minnesota!

by chadwick.matlin 1/4/2012 2:40:36 AM
Romney now running away with it, with his massive 41-vote lead.

by james.ledbetter 1/4/2012 2:41:30 AM
@Chadwick: Although McGovern did lose South Dakota.

by james.ledbetter 1/4/2012 2:42:31 AM
The Iowa caucus is the yard sale of American politics. Sub-retail, slightly shaggy, a little sad. But bargains if you know where to look for them.

by Shafer.Reuters 1/4/2012 2:42:35 AM
@James ...speaking of which, could this be the last time we'll ever see the Ames straw poll taken seriously?

by Kevin J 1/4/2012 2:42:38 AM

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