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Iowa Caucuses

If Paul supporters are the Majority in the internet, then how do you explain Mitt Having more Facebook fans? I don't get it, apparently the reason Paul comes up on top in online polls is because the internet is crawling with Paul fans.... how why aren't Mitt's followers voting in the polls? its not different then liking him on Facebook... its just a click away.

by Esteban Garita 1/4/2012 1:21:08 AM
RT @jane_sutton: Caucus site in West Des Moines is playing "Tonight's Going to be a Good Night" by the Black Eyed Peas. But good for who ...

by don_reuters via twitter 1/4/2012 1:22:21 AM
On the other hand, while Paul is clearly doing better with younger voters than in '08, the Iowa electorate tonight is apparently older as a whole than it was in '08.

by james.ledbetter 1/4/2012 1:22:27 AM
Look who bought the top spot for "Iowa Caucus" on search.twitter.com

by anthony.derosa 1/4/2012 1:23:00 AM
Big sponsors on CNN tonight of IA primary coverage: Cadillac (thank you, auto industry bailout) and American Petroleum Institute.

by james.ledbetter 1/4/2012 1:23:45 AM
This precinct is blasting @bep #iacaucus

by Lindsay Claiborn via twitter 1/4/2012 1:24:16 AM
Even Gingrich supporters refuse to stay on message. Said Gingrich supporter Dean Kleckner in Urbandale: "There’s a letter here from the Gingrich people. I’m not going to read it. I’m going to speak from the heart."

by sam.jacobs 1/4/2012 1:24:18 AM
@James: More mega-olds showed, certainly. But the proportion of 17-44 year olds is higher in '12 than '08. 30% vs. 26%. So might be a wash for Paul and Romney.

by chadwick.matlin 1/4/2012 1:24:52 AM
RT @OKnox: "Mexican Grand Warlock predicts Obama loss in 2012" www.google.com cc: @BenLaBolt

by samyoungman via twitter 1/4/2012 1:26:53 AM
I'm like Jesse Spano level "so excited."

by samyoungman via twitter 1/4/2012 1:27:18 AM
A note to commenters: While we greatly appreciate your participation, simple declarations on behalf of a given candidate are outside the scope of this blog. They will likely be deleted. If you've got something to say, please try and make it about the IA caucuses, offer links that will aid other readers, etc. Thanks.

by james.ledbetter 1/4/2012 1:30:51 AM
@James. Ad driven media = a balancing act between keeping viewers and keeping sponsors. News driven media = if you build it they will come. Media driven ads = here’s what you’ll get for only $19.95.

by Benjamin A. Finowski 1/4/2012 1:31:15 AM
Some early results show Paul and Santorum taking modest early leads in a few eastern/central counties: iowagop.org

by james.ledbetter 1/4/2012 1:33:24 AM
When should we expect results to start rolling in?

by Jonathon Jones 1/4/2012 1:33:33 AM
Thought from a friend: the Iowa Caucuses are like an NBA game: only the last five minutes matter.

by Nick Rizzo 1/4/2012 1:33:48 AM
@Jonathon: The rolling has begun! See previous post.

by james.ledbetter 1/4/2012 1:34:03 AM
For those who don't believe caucuses are different than primaries: Urbandale caucus now passing around a collection plate before the vote. Proceeds benefit local GOP.

by chadwick.matlin 1/4/2012 1:34:33 AM
All right! One precinct in Warren County reports! Paul 9 Romney 3 Perry 3 Santorum 3. That's total votes.

by Nick Rizzo 1/4/2012 1:36:15 AM
Rick Perry showing some surprising strength in early results in Clayton County.

by james.ledbetter 1/4/2012 1:36:58 AM
CSPAN camera follows ballot bucket into the counting room. This should be gripping...

by Nick Rizzo 1/4/2012 1:37:17 AM
The surrogate speeches have begun #iacaucus

by Lindsay Claiborn via twitter 1/4/2012 1:40:01 AM
Ok, now Warren County seems to be reporting Paul 9 Perry 4 Romney 3 Santorum 3 Gingrich 2. These are *slightly* early results.

by Nick Rizzo 1/4/2012 1:40:27 AM
Interesting challenge to conventional wisdom up until now: entrance poll showing Ron Paul getting slightly higher percentage of evangelical/born-again votes than Santorum. Gloria Borger spin: this is good for Romney.

by james.ledbetter 1/4/2012 1:40:40 AM
So far biggest pocket of Bachmann support is Cass County, and even there, she's in fourth place. That's with, um, 3 votes total.

by james.ledbetter 1/4/2012 1:42:30 AM
Even if Ron Paul wins, they'll still call someone else the frontrunner.

by cammycam 1/4/2012 1:42:39 AM
If Paul wins tonight, it's going to be because of independents. They made up 24 percent of the electorate tonight, and 48 percent of them favored Paul. Only 13 percent of the electorate self-described as independent
in 2008.

by chadwick.matlin 1/4/2012 1:42:57 AM
Dunno about you, but I had to shut off Twitter, which was slowing my computer down to a crawl.

by james.ledbetter 1/4/2012 1:43:40 AM
I can't see how these speeches would change a voter's mind. #iacaucus

by Lindsay Claiborn via twitter 1/4/2012 1:45:36 AM
Apparently Paul has won the town of Indianola. With 40 votes. www.indianolaiowa.gov

by james.ledbetter 1/4/2012 1:45:51 AM
Politico's Dylan Byers: Santorum 26.2%, Paul 22.9%, Romney 18.0% via AP at 8:42 p.m. ET. 2.8% precincts in.

by Nick Rizzo 1/4/2012 1:46:21 AM
This from the Ron Paul Twitter account: @jonhuntsman we found your one Iowa voter, he's in Linn precinct 5 you might want to call him and say thanks.

by John Peabody 1/4/2012 1:47:04 AM
Bigger cheers after @mittromney surrogate speech #iacaucus

by Lindsay Claiborn via twitter 1/4/2012 1:47:31 AM
Person counting votes in Urbandale (and on CSPAN)
snickers at the mention of Huntsman. He received one vote.

by chadwick.matlin 1/4/2012 1:48:48 AM
The county by county map on the Iowa GOP site is now unavailable, "due to maintenance downtime or capacity problems."

by james.ledbetter 1/4/2012 1:49:06 AM
I am interesting in the concept that caucus participants are being asked to donate $10 or less to avoid paperwork disclosures. Does anyone know what this is about? Does it count as buying the right to vote?

by patricia.zengerle 1/4/2012 1:49:29 AM
@James, Iowa GOP is working with Google. Bet Google site has a better time keeping it together. google.com

by sam.jacobs 1/4/2012 1:50:55 AM
The British website www.betfair.com sends a release saying its network of "shrewd political punters" is supporting Romney, who is trading as the $2.40 popular elect. I went to the site and it seems to be mostly about sports, casino and poker. But it has Paul as second favorite, at $3.20, just ahead of Santorum at $3.30.

by patricia.zengerle 1/4/2012 1:52:11 AM
Results so far, by county with 3% reporting.

by anthony.derosa 1/4/2012 1:52:39 AM
@james, confirmed. Substitute?

by Benjamin A. Finowski 1/4/2012 1:52:43 AM
@Ant: is that site back up?

by james.ledbetter 1/4/2012 1:53:05 AM
@Jim still down, but you can get the same results on Google here: www.google.com

by anthony.derosa 1/4/2012 1:53:47 AM
More Betfair.com - it says its political punters have already traded over $1 million on the Next US President market, with Obama trading at $1.87 to win a second term, and Romney the favorite to win the nomination. betting.betfair.com

by patricia.zengerle 1/4/2012 1:54:02 AM
Notice that Santorum is currently winning somewhat convincingly in the rural West of the state.

by Nick Rizzo 1/4/2012 1:54:18 AM
4% in and CNN says Santorum 24 percent, Paul 24 percent, Romney 22 percent

by jmclure 1/4/2012 1:54:36 AM
Framing question: If Romney comes in third, behind Paul and Santorum, will that be properly framed as a "loss" or at least a big disappointment?

by james.ledbetter 1/4/2012 1:54:47 AM

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