Iowa Caucuses
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The contest to pick a Republican presidential nominee officially kicks off on Tuesday night in Iowa, where voters will meet in hundreds of schools, libraries, and churches across the state to hear final speeches from candidates' surrogates and cast their votes.
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Iowans take their political ritual seriously and defend it with pride -- but what are the caucuses exactly, and how do they work? John Whitesides explains:
The turnout at each caucus can vary by community, ranging from as many as 1,000 in cities like Des Moines to a few dozen in sparsely populated areas.
Before the voting, a surrogate or volunteer from each campaign is given a chance to speak to a gathering of their neighbors to persuade them to back their candidate.
In a tight Republican race marked by frequent swings among voters, that adds an element of unpredictability to the result.
"There are people who will change their minds while they are at the caucus. A strong speech can have an effect," said Steve Deace, a conservative radio talk show host in Iowa.
Unlike Iowa Democrats, who gather into groups by candidate preference in a public display of support, Republicans write their vote privately on a sheet of paper that is collected and counted at the site by caucus officials.
A representative of each campaign is allowed to observe the counting. The results are announced to the caucus before they are reported to the state Republican Party, which tabulates the results from around the state and reports them to the public.
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"I am right back where I was four years ago, minus the snow, cold and Democrats; chasing Republican presidential candidates on the stump through the corn fields and dirt roads," writes Reuters photographer Joshua Lott, reflecting on his time spent covering the candidates in Iowa.
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Reuters' Sam Jacobs takes a look at how past winners of the Iowa caucuses have fared in the rest of the race. How often does the Iowa winner go on to clinch the party nomination? Or become president?
Since 1976, there have been seven contested caucuses in the Republican Party. Of those contests, three winners have become the party's nominee.
Since 1972, there have been nine contested caucuses in the Democratic Party. Of those, the winner of the caucuses has gone on to be the Democratic nominee five times.
As those numbers show, Iowa picks the eventual nominee only about half the time. Since the 1970s, four candidates who went on to win the White House failed to win contested caucuses: Bill Clinton, George H.W. Bush, Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter.
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What's it like covering the candidates on the campaign trail? Reuters photographer Joshua Lott says it "involves driving several hundred miles unless you are lucky enough to be embedded with a candidate on the journalist bus":
Once given an assignment to follow a candidate, I normally leave the night before or the day of the event depending on the location. Travel time can take anywhere from 30 minutes to 4 hours and candidates sometimes work the campaign trail from sunrise to sunset.
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In Iowa, Sam Jacobs and Sam Youngman write, Ron Paul -- who is trailing a close second to Romney in the state, according to a poll out on Friday -- campaigns his own way:
When Paul showed up at an event in Manchester, Iowa, last week, his entire entourage fit inside a white minivan. It included his three Iowa co-chairmen, a personal aide, and a bodyguard. Only Santorum travels lighter.
By comparison, Perry's entourage travels in two buses that carry the governor, a security detail of Texas Rangers, media handlers and advisers.
In a contest normally marked by kissing babies and reciting local trivia (Perry told the home crowd that Burlington, Iowa was the "Backhoe Capital of the World"), Paul resists charm.
During a chance breakfast encounter Thursday morning with a reporter, Paul snapped, "Right now, the only thing that bothers me is people who don't respect my privacy enough to leave me alone for five minutes when I'm eating breakfast."
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Newt Gingrich teared up while talking about his mother at the "Moms Matter 2012" forum in Des Moines on Friday. Afterward, correspondent Jeff Mason surveyed women at the event to get their reactions:
"It's just refreshing to see that," said Kate Kennedy, 45, who is a Gingrich supporter. "A lot of candidates tend to be very ... canned and very polished, where(as) this is really showing ... himself as a real person, as a grandfather and father. And that was wonderful to see."
Diane Patrick, 44, said she had been concerned about Gingrich's record of ethics violations and marital woes. The event helped convince her that he was a "changed man", she said, although she said she was not moved by his display of emotion. "I'm still torn between him and Rick Santorum," she said.
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In Iowa on Saturday, Romney told an audience that if he were president and Congress passed the Dream Act -- which would provide a path to citizenship for certain young illegal immigrants who have long lived in the United States -- he would veto it.
"The question is if I were elected and Congress were to pass the Dream Act, would I veto it and the answer is yes," he said.
"For those that come here illegally, the idea of giving them in-state tuition credits or other special benefits, I find to be contrary to the idea of a nation of laws."
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"Mitt Romney's crowds are larger now," Sam Youngman reports from Des Moines, but he "still has difficulty inspiring them":
Romney's crowds are respectful but not the boisterous groups one might associate with a front-runner.
His stump speeches often are more technocratic than inspirational. He criticizes Democratic President Barack Obama's handling of the economy, and offers disjointed transitions linking comments on patriotic songs, condemnations of the European way of life, and the need to create jobs and strengthen the U.S. military.
The crowd reacts to Romney's blinding smile with their own. There is applause and polite laughter. An occasional head nod can be seen as Romney lays out his plans. For the most part, the crowd is respectful but not overly enthused.
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"What I find interesting about covering the Iowa caucus as I travel from town to town is seeing the residents who attend these events that live here in middle America...people are excited about meeting the candidates and interested in hearing what they will bring to the surface. Like the World Cup or Olympic games, the Iowa Caucus repeats itself every four years. It’s history in the making." -- Reuters photographer Joshua Lott
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Romney received another endorsement from an Iowa newspaper on Sunday. In an editorial, the Quad-City Times said it supports Romney "not as a last resort, but as a solid, first preference."
"We do not want to see the president face a token challenge in 2012," the editorial said. "Romney presents a far more serious challenge than any other caucus contender."
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Newt Gingrich, in an interview with Reuters, claims he won't consider quitting the GOP race, even if he places in the bottom half of the pack in Iowa. Jeff Mason reports:
Survival alone would be a victory, [Gingrich] said, after the ads dented his momentum and his standing in the national race.
"I think the fact that we have survived 45 percent of all the ads in the state being negative about me is already a victory," Gingrich said in an interview on his campaign bus.
"I think there's a surge in our direction right now and I would say we will do respectably despite all the effort, particularly by Romney, to drive us out of the race."
Gingrich, whose campaign has earned a reputation for disorganization, said he had enough campaign funds to propel him through New Hampshire and on to South Carolina, the next two states that hold nominating contests.
"By the time we get to South Carolina, it will be very clear the gap between a Massachusetts moderate who hides his record behind negative ads and a conservative who's talking about positive ideas," Gingrich said.
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Rick Santorum is trying to rally his supporters in Iowa, urging them to "send a shock wave across this country" by voting for him, reports Steve Holland from Sioux City.
"Lead this country. That's what I ask the people of Iowa. Lead, don't defer," he said on Sunday. "Don't put forward somebody who isn't good enough to do what is necessary to change this country." -
Romney compared Obama to Kim Kardashian at a campaign event in Iowa on Sunday. “I’ve been looking at some video clips on YouTube of President Obama, then-candidate Obama, going through Iowa, making promises,” he said.
“I think the gap between his promises and his performance is the largest I’ve seen, well, since the Kardashian wedding and the promise of until death do we part."
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Newt Gingrich speaks to correspondent Jeff Mason in Waterloo, Iowa, about President Obama, his crying moment at the Moms Matter 2012 forum last week, and, above all, Romney and his negative ads.
"If you want to manage the decay, I think Mitt would be fine," Gingrich told Mason. "But I think there's no, no experience at all in his background that would suggest to you that Mitt could turn Washington around." -
Meanwhile, in New Hampshire, Romney appears set for a landslide win, Michelle Nichols reports, with 43 percent support according to a new 7 News/Suffolk University poll and 41 percent according to another new survey by Magellan Strategies.
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Rick Santorum attributes one of his favorite quotes --“We all get up every day and tell ourselves lies so we can live" -- to the neo-Marxist Christopher Lasch. But perhaps more strange, writes Reuters op-ed editor Jim Ledbetter, is that Lasch may never have said it:
A Google search for the specific quote shows a handful of references, but mainly from Santorum himself, and none with a specific citation to any Lasch book, article, or interview. Popular online quotation aggregators, such as BrainyQuote, offer dozens of better-known Lasch observations–e.g., “Conservatives unwittingly side with the social forces that contribute to the destruction of traditional values”–but not Santorum’s favorite. My colleague Paul Smalera suggests that it sounds more like the first line of Joan Didion’s book The White Album: “We tell ourselves stories in order to live.”
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Good morning -- it's Iowa caucuses day! The weather in Iowa is looking lovely: mostly sunny, with mild temperatures and clear roads, according to weather.com.
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Mitt Romney tells an Italian paper the U.S. "won't give a dollar to save Europe," Valentina Za reports from Milan:
Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, said he was aware that a collapse in Europe would have "enormous repercussions" for the world's economy and that it was in Washington's interest to avoid it.
"But it is not our job to avoid it. Europeans have a duty to solve their crisis with the means at their disposal," he was quoted on Tuesday as saying.
"Germany, France, Italy all have the resources to pay back their debts, solve the confidence crisis, invest and start growing again, ideally through a real market economy."
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Move over Mardi Gras, Des Moines will be celebration city tonight. Here's where the candidates will be celebrating (or lamenting) the results tonight:
Bachmann, West Des Moines Marriott;
Romney, Hotel Fort Des Moines;
Santorum, Stoney Creek Inn, Johnston, Iowa (a Des Moines suburb);
Perry, Sheraton West Des Moines;
Gingrich, Veterans Auditorium in Des Moines
Paul, Courtyard Des Moines Ankeny -
So much for positive campaigning? Gingrich called Romney a liar on CBS' The Early Show this morning. Here's the exchange with Norah O'Donnell, from CBS:
I have to ask you, are you calling Mitt Romney a liar?"
"Yes," Gingrich replied.
"You're calling Mitt Romney a liar?"
"Well, you seem shocked by it!" said Gingrich. "Yes. I mean, why - "
"Why are you saying he is a liar?" asked O'Donnell.
"Because this is a man whose staff created the PAC, his millionaire friends fund the PAC, he pretends he has nothing to do with the PAC - it's baloney. He's not telling the American people the truth. -
However, Newt said on CBS' The Early Show that he would support Romney if Romney ends up winning the nomination. "I would support a Republican candidate against Barack Obama because I think Barack Obama is tearing this country apart."
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Chris Cilizza of The Washington Post has a great roundup of six important Iowa counties. We'll be keeping an eye on all of them tonight. -
Speaking of Perry, who swaggered into Iowa last August and now finds himself near the back of the pack, the Texas governor made a bold prediction Monday. Perhaps feeling confident to find himself in Perry, Iowa, Perry predicted a victory. "When we win the big Iowa caucuses tomorrow, that's the only one that matters," the governor said. Associated Press's Philip Elliott has the story. -
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Who knew? Apparently the Democrats are also doing something in Iowa tonight. Obama volunteers are working the phones, just in case.
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I have eaten three whole cows and two pigs since I've been here. I'll miss Iowa. New Hampshire, fire up the grillby samyoungman via twitter 1/3/2012 3:32:15 PM -
Have you seen Slate's animation of the Iowa caucuses as a horse race?
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I almost forgot that it was a holiday weekend, now all the residents are back on the roads in Iowa - it's also COLD!by Lindsay Claiborn via twitter 1/3/2012 3:34:22 PM -
U.S. News & World Report's Ken Walsh on The Meaning of Iowa www.usnews.com -
Iowa has correctly picked two of the previous five Republican nominees in contested races, and six of the last eight Democratic nominees. In 1972, "Uncommitted" narrowly edged Maine Sen. Ed Muskie and South Dakota Sen. George McGovern.
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Ginger Gibson at Politico reports that about 75 to 100 people showed up to Newt Gingrich's first event today. -
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OH on the elevator here at the Perry hotel: "Tick tock, tick tock." Ask not for whom the bell tolls...by samyoungman via twitter 1/3/2012 3:47:06 PM
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John F. Harris, who moderated one of the Republican debates, and colleague Alexander Burns think the Republican group is a "field of dwarves" and "mediocrities." Maybe Harris is still mad at Newt Gingrich for lecturing him during the Politico debate in September.
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Some more Iowa Caucus history: Gerald Ford is the only Republican since 1976 to win a contested caucus and then carry the state in the general election. Good news for Chicago?
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The biggest beneficiary of Super PAC money this early in the primary season is Mitt Romney. Out of the $13 million spent, $4.6 went to the former Massachusetts Governor, reports the Center for Public Integrity.
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I want to get into Perry's fourth-quarter fundraising numbers like Geraldo wanted into Capone's vault #sameresult?by samyoungman via twitter 1/3/2012 3:59:34 PM
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This caucus would be so much more fun if Herman Cain was still running. I like the helpfully labeled map on his website that identifies in three words or less his opinion of foreign countries. Brazil is a "friend." Russia is a "rival." Egypt is listed as: "danger and opportunity" and Libya as "clarity needed." Very, very true.
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@samyoungman should be dismalby CarolBAndrews via twitter 1/3/2012 4:05:12 PM
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