Budget 2016
India unveiled a budget for the poor on Monday, announcing new rural aid schemes and skimping on a bank bailout, in a strategy shift that seeks to boost Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling party in coming state elections.
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We'll be asking Arvind Subramanian at his press conference what he means by "credibility and optimality" concerning the 3.5 pct/GDP fiscal deficit target for 16/17; and whether his call for a review of the medium-term fiscal framework applies to the out years.
In translation, economists seem to think that he means the deficit may be raised next year, and that it will most likely to be hiked after that. -
JUST IN: There is scope for easing monetary policy, Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian says
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I'm also intrigued by the passage on external 'tail' risks: The Economic Survey warns of a possible currency realignment in Asia and, in the next sentence, it says capital controls may be imposed to stem outflows from large emerging markets.
Translating again: Does India think that China will devalue or slap on capital controls to conserve its still-vast, but already somewhat depleted, FX reserves?
Which is more likely? Please tell!
Interesting that this passage appears to reflect the thinking of the 'other' Arvind, in our recent interview:
India would be very concerned by big China devaluation - Arvind Panagariya
Reuters IndiaIndia would be very concerned if China were to allow a major devaluation in the yuan currency, its Group of 20 summit negotiator told Reuters, adding that he doubted Beijing would allow this to happen. -
Seems like we'll have to wait till Monday for the answer to what "optimality and credibility" means - Arvind Subramanian has ducked the deficit question in advance.
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"The sweet spot is still beckoningly there for India" - Subramanian. Sounds familiar - he said the same thing last year:
India in sweet spot of lower deficits, more growth - Economic Survey
Reuters IndiaIndia can increase investment to drive economic growth without borrowing more, a key government report said on Friday, in an indication that Finance Minister Arun Jaitley will stick to debt targets in his maiden full-year budget on Saturday. -
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Good morning to all of you. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley will start presenting Budget 2016 in less than an hour and a half from now. -
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The Sensex is trading flat at 9.44 a.m. with 18 out of 30 components in the negative territory ahead of the Union Budget
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FM @arunjaitley reaches Parliament with the #Budget2016 briefcase.
Pre-budget #Cabinet meet shortly. https://t.co/wv1zUkJlvP
9:52 AM - 29 Feb 2016- Reply
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The finance minister has arrived at the parliament. -
As we await #UnionBudget2016 speech, take a look at some quotes from previous speeches https://t.co/DOnVxd8f2e https://t.co/aPUE7YQiNV
10:28 AM - 29 Feb 2016- Reply
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Finance Minister Arun Jaitley arrives at parliament to present the 2016/17 budget in New Delhi, February 29, 2016. REUTERS/Adnan Abidi
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Reporting team locked and loaded for Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's third budget - will it be a budget for the poor?
Modi's budget, in policy shift, to focus on rural India - officials
Reuters IndiaPrime Minister Narendra Modi wants the budget unveiled on Monday to appeal to India's rural poor, officials familiar with his thinking said, in a strategy shift that could boost his ruling party in coming state elections but disappoint investors. -
#Budget2016 expectation: Dinesh Kumar Singh, 44, a stock broker talks on long term capital gain tax @3393Singhby Mohi Narayan via twitter 2/29/2016 5:08:18 AM -
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In pictures - Budget architects over the years
Budget architects over the years | Pictures | Reuters.com
Finance Minister Manmohan Singh goes through his budget speach in his office in New Delhi on the budget eve February 27, 1994. REUTERS/Kamal Kishore
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Akanksha Singh and Mohi are out on Delhi streets, asking people for their #Budget2016 wishlist.
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#BUDGET2016 EXPECTATIONS
Food prices should come down, travel should be cheaper
Rajkumari, 53, works for a private firm -
READER COMMENT
Fiscal deficit targets must be honored. -
#BUDGET2016 EXPECTATIONS
Food inflation should be controlled, salary hike should be considered
Sarika, 35, NDMC worker -
#BUDGET2016 EXPECTATIONS
Tax slab should be increased, subsidized cylinder plan shouldn't be scrapped, service tax shouldn't be increased, and I want a reduction in home loan interest rates.
Atul Jain, 40, works at a private firm -
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley rises to present Budget 2016
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I am presenting the budget when the global economy is in a serious crisis, FM Jaitley says
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Jaitley presents a verse in Hindi. Sort of a tradition with all finance ministers during their budget speech.
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Budget2016 expectation: Sushma Goyal, 59, a bank employee wants more tax reliefby Mohi Narayan via twitter 2/29/2016 5:35:55 AM
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FM: The growth of GDP has accelerated to 7.6% #VikasKaBudget11:05 AM - 29 Feb 2016
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#Budget2016: Need to continue with pace of economic reforms, policy initiatives
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#Budget2016: Need to ensure macroeconomic stability and prudent fiscal management against global risks
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FM: Govt. has to prioritize expenditure. Focus on the rural and social sectors, infrastructure and recapitalization of banks #VikasKaBudget11:09 AM - 29 Feb 2016
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Jaitley proposes new scheme to support BPL families with cooking gas subsidy #Budget2016by Mohi Narayan via twitter 2/29/2016 5:41:50 AM
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Jaitley's nine pillars for budget: Agriculture and farmers' welfare, rural sector, social sector, educational skills and job creation, infrastructure and investment, financial sector reforms, governance and ease of doing business, fiscal discipline, tax reforms
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FM @arunjaitley : Nominal premium and highest ever compensation in case of crop loss under the PM Fasal Bima Yojana #VikasKaBudget11:11 AM - 29 Feb 2016
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The government aims to double the income of farmers by 2022: FM Jaitley
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10 minutes into Arun Jaitley's budget speech and it sounds like it will be a populist one. -
Here's our preview story - Modi's budget, in policy shift, to focus on rural India - officials
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#Budget2016 Total 359.84 billion rupees for farmer welfare in 2016/17
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Two schemes to encourage organic farming proposed by Jaitley. "Emphasis is on value addition," he says.
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5 lakh acres land to be brought under organic farming region, Jaitley says #Budget2016by Mohi Narayan via twitter 2/29/2016 5:47:29 AM
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FM: A dedicated irrigation fund worth Rs 20,000 crore to be set up under NABARD: #VikasKaBudget11:17 AM - 29 Feb 2016
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Kerry defends diplomacy as Russian-backed forces pound Aleppo
CARTAGENA, Colombia/BEIRUT U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry defended his efforts to negotiate with Moscow over the war in Syria on Monday, despite the collapse of a ceasefire that has led to a massive Russian-backed assault on the besieged rebel-held sector of Aleppo.