IFR - Outlook for Global Emerging Market Debt in 2012

Tweets and highlights of a one-day conference in London

3rd & 7 37yd

Good morning from Canary Wharf in London... We will be starting in a few minutes as guests are arriving at the Thomson Reuters headquarters. The first session will look at the outlook for key emerging markets, with the keynote from Jerome Booth, head of research at Ashmore Investment Management.

by CapitalCityIFR 9/27/2011 7:52:35 AM
More than 200 top executives, strategists and researchers in EM DCM are scheduled to attend. The agenda covers sovereign (10:15), domestic (10:45) and corporate issuance (11:45), and syndicated loans (12:15) with a deeper focus on geographic regions in the afternoon.

by CapitalCityIFR 9/27/2011 8:05:28 AM
Jerome Booth: "All countries are risky. Emerging markets are ones where we have priced that in...Developed countries don't even perceive their own risk."

by CapitalCityIFR 9/27/2011 8:23:21 AM
Booth: Greece has no chance to get its fiscal programme where it needs to be.

by CapitalCityIFR 9/27/2011 8:31:59 AM
Booth: There is a process of catharsis going on in Europe. That's a good thing. For fiscal discipline we need to have stigma, we need the haircuts.#IFR-EM

by CapitalCityIFR 9/27/2011 8:34:36 AM
Booth: Breakup of the Euro "very unlikely"...Politically unacceptable. #IFR-EM

by CapitalCityIFR 9/27/2011 8:36:01 AM
RT @jgmastrini: Booth: Greece has no chance to get its fiscal programme where it needs to be.

by CapitalCityIFR via twitter 9/27/2011 8:36:36 AM
Booth on US: Either you need have a big fiscal package with a big multiplier effect, or nothing at all. Tax cuts not useful because they will just go to savings.

by CapitalCityIFR 9/27/2011 8:37:52 AM
RT @jgmastrini: Booth: Breakup of the Euro "very unlikely"...Politically unacceptable. #IFR-EM

by CapitalCityIFR via twitter 9/27/2011 8:38:44 AM
Booth: Full depression in the United States seen at 5-20 percent chance.

by CapitalCityIFR 9/27/2011 8:41:05 AM
Booth: We are now in a different world where we can think about risk in a different way... The phenomenon of deleveraging leaves emerging markets as beneficiaries.

by CapitalCityIFR 9/27/2011 8:45:37 AM
Booth: We are now in a different world where we can think about risk in a different way.

by CapitalCityIFR via twitter 9/27/2011 8:46:48 AM
Booth: The phenomenon of deleveraging leaves emerging markets as beneficiaries. #IFR-EM

by CapitalCityIFR via twitter 9/27/2011 8:47:42 AM
#IFR-EM: Panel on the macro outlook has begun with Peter Attard Montalto of Nomura.

by CapitalCityIFR via twitter 9/27/2011 8:55:29 AM
Benoit Anne of Societe Generale: Right now expecting a big move out of emerging markets. "Risk of sharp currency depreciation" #IFR-EM

by CapitalCityIFR via twitter 9/27/2011 8:57:42 AM
Thierry Apoteker of T-A-C Financial: Emerging markets... very few can stay immune... what are the key channels of transmission? #IFR-EM

by CapitalCityIFR via twitter 9/27/2011 9:00:46 AM
Jonathan Fenby of Trusted Sources: The world has not worked out how to deal with China and its impact on global systems.

by CapitalCityIFR via twitter 9/27/2011 9:04:04 AM
Fenby: China is still a Communist country... the people who still matter are the 9 men atop the party with amazing heads of hair.

by CapitalCityIFR via twitter 9/27/2011 9:05:26 AM
Fenby: Their bottom line is to keep the Communist party in power.

by CapitalCityIFR via twitter 9/27/2011 9:06:19 AM
Fenby: In understanding China you have to start from inside. Risk factor is that the Communist Party runs its own rule of law.

by CapitalCityIFR via twitter 9/27/2011 9:07:54 AM
Fenby: If investing in China, invest in Hong Kong, not Shanghai.

by CapitalCityIFR via twitter 9/27/2011 9:08:36 AM
#IFR-EM Apoteker: Transmission risk adds to ex ante vulnerability. Cites Poland, Vietnam, Russia.

by CapitalCityIFR via twitter 9/27/2011 9:14:08 AM
Apoteker: The crisis has acted as a trigger for a long overdue EM correction. Strong correlation--carry trades and loss of competitiveness.

by CapitalCityIFR via twitter 9/27/2011 9:17:17 AM
RT @matthewjdavies: At least they've got some, Jonathan MT @CapitalCityIFR: Fenby: China... people atop the party with amazing heads of hair

by CapitalCityIFR via twitter 9/27/2011 9:18:43 AM
Montalto: People taking very particular trades in EM (getting very close to policies on the ground). Likes South Korea, Chile, Czech Rep.

by CapitalCityIFR via twitter 9/27/2011 9:21:19 AM
Benoit Anne of Soc Gen: Asian currencies are mis-priced, including the reminbi. No way China is immune to the crisis. Likes Turkish lira.

by CapitalCityIFR via twitter 9/27/2011 9:22:54 AM
@jgmastrini hosting IFR's first ever live blog - at the IFR emerging markets conference. Ashmore's Booth speaking now ow.ly

by matthewjdavies via twitter 9/27/2011 9:24:06 AM
RT @matthewjdavies: At least they've got some, Jonathan MT @CapitalCityIFR: Fenby: China ... people atop the party with amazing heads of ...

by CapitalCityIFR via twitter 9/27/2011 9:26:59 AM
IFR Editor-at-large Keith Mullin chairs the conference.

by CapitalCityIFR 9/27/2011 9:35:18 AM
Timoth Ash, RBS Head of EM Research sees Emerging Europe largely avoiding problems of peripheral Europe. #IFR-EM

by CapitalCityIFR via twitter 9/27/2011 9:37:54 AM
Ash: "I don't see a huge increase in financing costs (in emerging Europe)".

by CapitalCityIFR via twitter 9/27/2011 9:38:47 AM
Daniel Hewitt, Sr EM EMEA economist... (Beyond exotics) it is really the macro world we have to worry about. #IFR-EM

by CapitalCityIFR via twitter 9/27/2011 9:40:32 AM
Hewitt is from Barclays Capital.

by CapitalCityIFR via twitter 9/27/2011 9:41:10 AM
Hewitt: After Greece, Europe will have lots of trouble getting people to buy the bonds of other countries.

by CapitalCityIFR via twitter 9/27/2011 9:44:13 AM
Hewitt: If Greece defaults there will be five or six months with no (sovereign) issuance (in peripheral countries).

by CapitalCityIFR via twitter 9/27/2011 9:45:23 AM
Moving on to EM domestic issuer trends with George Niedringhaus, global head of syndicate at VTB Capital. #IFR-EM

by CapitalCityIFR 9/27/2011 9:55:07 AM
Daniel Hewitt, Senior Emerging EMEA Economist, Barclays Capital

by CapitalCityIFR 9/27/2011 10:04:34 AM
Niedringhaus: Investors in Russia not willing to take on FX risk and overlay credit risk.

by CapitalCityIFR via twitter 9/27/2011 10:06:25 AM
Niedringhaus: People would welcome a big liquid internationally open investment vehicle (in Russia).

by CapitalCityIFR via twitter 9/27/2011 10:08:11 AM
Dmitry Dudkin, head of fixed income research, URALSIB Capital (L), and George Niedringhaus, global head of syndicate, VTB Capital.

by CapitalCityIFR 9/27/2011 10:10:26 AM
In a break now. Morning talk so-far has focused on how quickly peripheral Europe/US/developed world crisis will transmit to EM. No consensus emerging. There will be varied impact, but money still can be made on the ground with local knowledge in EM countries.

by CapitalCityIFR 9/27/2011 10:20:55 AM
Next up at the Glasto equivalent for Emerging Market debt investors #IFR-EM 2011: Corporate bond issuance for 2012

by CapitalCityIFR via twitter 9/27/2011 10:47:09 AM
Maria Laura Lanzeni, head of EM research, Deutsche Bank: Chile's exposure to Spanish banks is at 30% of GDP. #IFR-EM

by CapitalCityIFR via twitter 9/27/2011 11:00:03 AM
Vivek Tawadey (L), head of CEEMA credit research, BNP Paribas; Nicolas Kurt, director DCM EEMEA, Credit Agricole CIB; Viacheslav Shilin (R), head of credit research Deutsche Bank.

by CapitalCityIFR 9/27/2011 11:13:19 AM
Maria Laura Lanzeni, Head of Emerging Markets Research and Global Risk Analysis, Deutsche Bank.

by CapitalCityIFR 9/27/2011 11:18:52 AM

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IFR - Outlook for Global Emerging Market Debt in 2012

Tweets and highlights of a one-day conference in London

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