French Elections 2017
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Very early returns from the interior ministry indicate abstentions so far as high as 29%. Out of the voters who did present themselves, 8.7% cast blank votes and 4% spoiled their ballots.Health warning: these are very early figures based on 5.8 million out of the 47 million people who were eligible to vote in this election. -
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Congratulations @EmmanuelMacron. Congratulations to French people for choosing Liberty, Equality and Fraternity over tyranny of fake news.7:14 PM - 07 May 2017
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Sopra Steria has taken an early look at how France voted:Reasons for supporting Macron:Opposition to Le Pen - 43%He brings political renewal: 33%Support for his programme: 16%His personality: 8%Reasons for supporting Le Pen:She brings political renewal: 41%Support for her programme: 30%Opposition to Macron: 22%Her personality: 7%
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Philippe Waechter, chief economist at Natixis Asset Management, reacts to the result:"It's clear from these results that the participation was not very high, and French society is fragmented.In the immediate aftermath, one of Macron’s duties will be to reconcile France.Next markets will be watching the legislative
elections, of course. The estimates so far have been for a majority, which
would make things a lot easier for him. The French are legitimist, likely to
give the elected president a majority.We'll also be closely watching his pick of prime
minister - that will be the most important in the near-term. He hasn’t given
any indication of who this may be, and they will be essential in order for him
to implement his whole legislative project."Waechter says the most important reforms from a market point of view will be Macron's plans to overhaul the labour market. -
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7:23 PM - 07 May 2017
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7:25 PM - 07 May 2017
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“The liberal values of tolerance, openness and free trade that triumphed in France today can triumph in Britain too… https://t.co/OVBWrRkDQf7:28 PM - 07 May 2017
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Some views from the Street after this historic election:
Market participants are of course starting to speculate over the possibility of Macron getting a ruling majority in parliament.
"In our view, it will be difficult for Macron to obtain a majority in the lower
house, but cohabitation is likely to be avoided if Macron forms a cross-party
coalition (center left and center right parties) around a narrow set of
reforms," say JP Morgan analysts."Attention will now turn to June's parliamentary elections; a fair degree of success is needed here for the new president, if his economic reforms are going to see the light of
day," says UBS Wealth Management economist Dean Turner.JP Morgan highlights some important policies for markets, including lowering the corporate tax rate from 33% to 25%, keeping the retirement age unchanged, a 50 billion euro investment plan into education and the environment, a budget deficit below 3% over his five-year term, and a Euro area budget approved by the European parliament.
And investors reckon the removal of this French political risk could lead to a better performance from the overall Eurozone economy.
"Fading political risk in France adds to the chance that Eurozone economic growth can surprise to the upside this year," says Berenberg bank's Holger Schmieding.
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Macron banks on de Gaulle's 'majority amplifier' to govern
ReutersUnknown just three years ago, and with a party only 12 months old, Emmanuel Macron has seized the presidency against all the odds. His challenge now is to govern. -
Macron's election also means a new European leader will join the fraught negotiations with the UK as it navigates towards its exit from the European Union.Opimas, a management consultancy, reckons Macron will be uniquely tough on Britain and his policies, especially slashing the corporate tax rate, could contribute to Paris siphoning off all-important financial services and other businesses from London.
"Emmanuel Macron will now be in a position to take a very uncompromising position with the UK
over Brexit.This is a fight that will get ugly, with Macron trying to attract as much business as possible away from the UK, with a special focus on the
financial services industry.Macron is going to lower corporate taxes, create incentives to invest in equities, and reduce red tape. This will make Paris a magnet to wrest business away from London.
At the same time, he has made it clear that he opposes any special arrangement between the UK and the European Union post-Brexit," says Octavio Marenzi, Opimas CEO.
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Back to Matthias Blamont at Marine Le Pen's post-election rally in eastern Paris:
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clamour of boos came from a small group of supporters as projections announced Macron's victory at 8pm.After Le Pen quickly conceded defeat, supporters shouted "Merci Marine!" while waving
French flags. Others chanted "Marine-la-voix-du-peuple!" (Marine, voice of the people)."It's exceptional, what has happened. Now for the legislative elections (in June). It's still a victory for us, we'll keep going," says young supporters' organiser Gaëtan Dussausaye, 23.
Retired Jean-Francois
Perier, 76, adds: "It's not a surprise even if I am disappointed....I think the (televised second-round) debate is where it went wrong....Now we look to rebound in the parliamentary elections." -
Macron to take time reforming economy in divided France
ReutersAfter a decade of slow growth, rising unemployment and dwindling competitiveness, France elected a president on Sunday who says he has a plan to pull the country out of its economic malaise. -
I am delighted that the French people have decisively rejected Le Pen's politics of hate.7:38 PM - 07 May 2017
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France's Le Pen says far-right National Front to be relaunched
ReutersFrance's far-right National Front must be relaunched, Marine Le Pen said on Sunday after conceding defeat to centrist Emmanuel Macron in France's presidential election . -
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INSTANT VIEW from market participants:""We are expecting the European markets to roar when traders start trading. This has eased a lot of concerns and investors will feel more comfortable in holding the riskier assets," says Naeem Aslan, London-based analyst at Thinkmarkets."Clearly the fact that political risk has reduced could see investors globally converging towards Europe," says Vincent Juvyns, global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management."People have been unwinding tail risk since the first-round results, so Europe is one of the best-performing markets in the year-to-date having lagged previously,"echoes David Vickers, senior portfolio manager at Russell Investments."Assuming that following today's vote we move towards a situation where Macron may actually be able to advance a reform agenda and make some progress on the fiscal side, that should provide a possible underpinning for French markets and some of that will spill over to other markets, especially in Europe," says Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist at PGIM Fixed Income."There have been some anxious moments over the last few months with Austrian, Dutch and French elections and some uncertainty in Germany, but the bread appears to be falling with the buttered side up."
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Marine Le Pen, French National Front (FN) political party candidate for French 2017 presidential election, concedes defeat at the Chalet du Lac in the Bois de Vincennes in Paris after her defeat in the second round of 2017 French presidential election, France, May 7, 2017. REUTERS/Pascal Rossignol
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What does Macron's win mean for the euro?"When we were looking at Friday's predictions for the euro, the average year-end forecast was $1.06 but there has been a lot of political overhang," says Russell Investments' David Vickers."Now that we've had this result, we think those forecasts will be moved higher as political risks are removed and (that) frees up the European Central Bank to think more about unwinding quantitative easing in the face of stronger data."A stronger euro, of course, is not necessarily good for European companies which export abroad, as it means their products cost more for foreign buyers. The currency will be one factor to watch as this Europe-wide political risk is lifted.
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A reminder from British betting shop William Hill that Macron was 16/1 to win the election as recently as last November - he shot up from those outsider levels to the 1/33 odds-on favourite when betting closed today.The amount bet on this election bears testimony to the heightened interest it has drawn far and wide.Close to 1 million pounds were bet on the vote, an increase of 4000 percent from the previous French election.78 percent of bets were on Macron to win. The biggest bet on Le Pen was a 30,000 pound wager.“Although the majority of bets were on Macron, Le Pen would actually have cost us a lot of money," said William Hill's Tony
Kenny.
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Macron now giving his victory speech. He looks slightly terrified. Also - notice the flags. https://t.co/Ee147j8gcl
8:08 PM - 07 May 2017- Reply
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